The Migration
Wave

Canada's housing boom wasn't uniform. It was a wave — city by city, year by year, driven by capital chasing cheaper markets after each successive policy shock.

Before the wave: a flat national market

In 2015 Canada's housing market was quiet outside Alberta, which was already sliding as oil prices collapsed. Vancouver and Toronto were elevated but not yet extreme. No city had broken away from the national trend.

Vancouver ignites — alone

In 2016 Vancouver's index jumped 18 points in a single year while every other major city stayed flat. Foreign capital poured into BC real estate, and the province's foreign-buyer tax arrived too late to prevent the spike.

Toronto catches the wave

By 2017 buyers priced out of Vancouver — domestic and foreign — pivoted to Toronto. The city added 19 index points in a year. Ontario's Non-Resident Speculation Tax briefly cooled it, but the damage was done: Toronto had permanently re-rated.

2021: the wave goes national

Remote work broke the logic of urban proximity. Buyers priced out of Vancouver and Toronto looked to Montréal and Ottawa — both exploded in 2021. Calgary and Edmonton also recovered as oil prices rebounded after the 2020 crash.

2023: the tide recedes — unevenly

Rate hikes pulled prices down across the coast cities. But Calgary and Edmonton kept climbing — Alberta's economy was still running hot. The migration wave had permanently redistributed demand westward.

Sources

Data is approximate and for illustrative purposes only. Verify against official publications before any decision-making use.